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I've had more TikTok conversations in the past few weeks than I’ve had in years. Let’s cut through the noise and give you a clear path forward.

The Facts: A Timeline of Key Events 📅

2020

• January: U.S. Marine Corps, Air Force, and Coast Guard ban TikTok on government devices.

• August 6: President Trump issues Executive Order 13942, attempting to ban transactions between ByteDance and U.S. citizens.

• September 19: Oracle partners with TikTok under "Project Texas" to store American data in the U.S.

2024

• April: Congress passes a bipartisan law requiring TikTok to sell to a non-Chinese owner or face a ban.

• May: President Biden signs legislation giving ByteDance one year to divest TikTok's U.S. operations.

2025

• January 17: The U.S. Supreme Court upholds the ban, rejecting TikTok's First Amendment challenge.

• January 19:

  • January 18, 22:30 ET: DNS traffic to TikTok drops by 85%.

  • Evening: TikTok becomes inaccessible in the U.S., showing a compliance notice.

  • 12:30 ET: TikTok starts restoring service, but traffic remains 7% below pre-shutdown levels.

  • Ongoing: TikTok is missing from Google and Apple app stores due to potential $850 billion in penalties.

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Why Should You Care? 🤔

Even if you're not on TikTok, here’s why it matters:

• $10 billion in ad spend went through TikTok in 2024—more than YouTube.

• That budget is shifting fast, which means higher ad costs on other platforms (yes, your Meta and Google ads just got pricier).

The Scenarios: What Happens Next? 😌

Let’s look at the four possible outcomes:

1. TikTok finds a buyer – Operations resume, but traffic dips by 10-20%.

2. No buyer, no TikTok – It shuts down in the U.S. by April 4, 2025.

3. Slow recovery – TikTok returns at some point, but traffic never fully recovers.

4. Ongoing uncertainty – Legal battles and advertiser distrust keep ad dollars elsewhere.

Sources inside TikTok are betting on Scenario 1. My take? Scenario 4 is the safe bet—because when politics, courts, and billions collide, things get messy.

Your Next Moves: Stay Ahead of the Chaos 😵‍💫

Regardless of which scenario you believe, planning for the worst is key. Here’s where to shift your dollars for the best ROI:

Number one, move ad dollars to Meta. 

Number two, move dollars to YouTube. 

Number three, test new platforms that are vying for TikTok ad dollars.  

• Snap is offering 20% back in free ad spend to advertisers that spend more than $100,000.

• Reddit, is offering 10% in ad credits. Those ad credits apply for brands spending between $150,000 and $1 million on the platform. If you spend over $1 million, you can get 15% back in ad credits, though the incentives are capped at $500,000.

• Pinterest has been pitching TikTok advertisers and may have off-rate card deals.

Why Not Google Search? ❌

Two reasons:

• It’s a different, lower-funnel intent-based channel.

• Google's evolving SGE (Search Generative Experience) is impacting traffic and Ad ROI.

Who the hell knows what's going to happen to TikTok. But no matter what, I want you to be ready.

P.S. Kids are amazing. My 3-year-old is going in for her 3rd surgery today and is cool as a cucumber about it. I’m going to be channeling her in my next high-stakes negotiation. 🤣